Novo Nordisk 2025 Financial Results: Obesity & Diabetes Growth Amid Margin Pressures and Tough 2026 Outlook — Maziar Mike Doustdar

Novo Nordisk A/S reported its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 financial results showing solid sales growth driven by GLP-1 diabetes and obesity care products, robust profitability, generous shareholder returns, and strategic pipeline progress. However, the company’s 2026 guidance reflects meaningful headwinds from pricing pressures, patent expiries and competitive dynamics that tempered investor enthusiasm.

Full-Year & Q4 2025 Revenue and Profit Overview

For the full year 2025, total revenues expanded approximately 10% at CER (constant exchange rates) with growth powered by blockbuster metabolic medicines, particularly obesity care and GLP-1 treatments. Operating profit also grew, although at a more moderate rate, while net profit within 2025 reached roughly DKK 102 billion, up low-single digits year-over-year.

The gross margin declined to about 81.0% from around 84.7% in 2024, signalling rising cost pressures and competitive pricing impacts.

• Sales growth (2025): ~10% at CER

• Operating profit growth: ~6% at CER

• Net profit: ~DKK 102 billion (up ~1%–2%)

• Gross margin: ~81.0% (down from 84.7%)

Performance in Q4 2025 specifically beat analysts’ forecasts, with quarterly revenue around $12.53 billion and EPS above consensus, yet the stock price declined as investors focused on forward outlook concerns.

Product & Segment Drivers

Diabetes and Obesity Care

Novo’s core therapeutic engines — GLP-1 treatments and obesity care products like Wegovy and Ozempic — remained the principal growth contributors. Obesity care sales surged significantly (reported at DKK 82.3 billion).

Notably, the Wegovy oral pill launch in the U.S. produced meaningful early adoption, with tens of thousands of weekly prescriptions shortly after launch — enhancing Novo’s metabolic franchise breadth.

Global Market Footprint

Novo maintained leadership in key markets, with strong growth in international operations, especially in obesity care. While diabetes value share slightly moderated, the overall contribution remained substantial.

Operating Efficiency & Capital Allocation

Cash generation and free cash flow were strong, swinging from negative free cash flow in 2024 to robust positive free cash flow in 2025 (about DKK 28.3 billion). Increased capital expenditures reflected investments in manufacturing expansion and innovation capacity.

Novo returned significant capital to shareholders via dividends (~DKK 52 billion in 2025) and outlined future shareholder returns exceeding DKK 60 billion. A new share repurchase program (up to DKK 15 billion) was also approved.

Leadership Commentary & Strategic Direction

CEO Maziar “Mike” Doustdar highlighted the company’s strong performance in 2025, driven by metabolic medicines and expanded treatment access. However, Novo also acknowledged strategic challenges that informed 2026 guidance — notably pricing pressures from policy changes and the onset of biosimilar competition for semaglutide drugs in several markets.

Novo initiated organizational transformation to sharpen focus and cost discipline, including workforce restructuring aimed at enhancing agility and competitive positioning.

2026 Outlook and Market Reaction

Despite beating 2025 expectations, Novo’s 2026 guidance projected sales and operating profit declines of approximately 5% to 13%, primarily due to pricing concessions under new U.S. programs and the loss of exclusivity in select regions — a rare but impactful scenario for the historically growth-oriented pharma giant.

Market reaction was immediate, with the stock experiencing notable declines following the release, reflecting investor concern over near-term revenue compression despite underlying franchise strength.

Key Financial Takeaways

Strengths

• Solid revenue growth driven by leading GLP-1 and obesity medicines.

• Robust profitability with continued free cash flow generation and shareholder returns.

• Strategic product innovation, including first-in-class oral obesity therapy adoption.

Challenges

• Margin compression and competitive pricing pressures impacting gross profit.

• Guidance indicating near-term revenue and profit contraction, a key investor concern.

Novo Nordisk’s 2025 financial performance showcased its continued leadership in metabolic therapies, supported by strong growth and operational cash flow. However, broader external pressures and a cautious 2026 outlook have rebalanced investor expectations, underscoring both the durability and vulnerabilities of its premium product portfolio.